In 2020 and 2021, the Census Bureau released several data products meant to demonstrate the effect of the Bureau’s new Disclosure Avoidance System (DAS) on population counts (using 2010 census data). The final demonstration product using the same privacy parameters applied to the 2020 census data was released in September 2023 for sex by age. The University of Minnesota’s IPUMS National Historical Geographic Information System (NHGIS) volunteered to convert the Census Bureau’s un-tabulated demonstration data into useful summary formats, linked to the published 2010 summary data. The intent of both organizations was for census data users to use these tabulated files to assess the impact of the DAS on their own local data. NHGIS tabulated data is located here. Information on the DAS is located here.
Note: Chicago is excluded due to being OOJ.
The mean absolute change in population between the published 2010 data and the demonstration product data is -0.56 people. The largest absolute change in population between the demonstration data and the actual 2010 data is for Hoffman Estates with an increase of 18 people in the demonstration data. The mean percent change in population for all Cook County towns is 0.007%. There are 0 towns with a percent change in total population of more than 5%. The town with the largest absolute percent change in the demonstration total population counts is Bedford Park with a percent change of 0.52%. These patterns are reflected in the box plots below.
Conclusions: Total municipality populations are unlikely to be largely impacted by the 2020 DAS parameters and can be used without reservation.
The mean absolute change in the total male population by municipality between the published 2010 data and the demonstration product data is 5.29 people. The largest absolute change in population is for Chicago Heights, with an increase of 23 people in the demonstration data. The mean percent change in the total male population for all Cook County munis is -0.02%. There are no towns with a percent change in the total male population of more than 5%. The town with the largest percent change in the demonstration Hispanic/Latino population counts is McCook with a percent change of -1.85%. The median percent change is 0% and the interquartile range is [-1.04%, 0.82%].
Conclusions: When aggregated, the variation introduced by the DAS settings for the total male population at the municipal level is negligible. There are no concerns for directionality. This means we can be reasonably confident in the 2020 jurisdiction-level total male population estimate, as calculated by the subtraction method.
The mean absolute change in the total female population by municipality between the published 2010 data and the demonstration product data is 6.68 people. The largest absolute change in population is for Chicago Heights, with a decrease of 33 people in the demonstration data. The mean percent change in the total female population for all Cook County munis is -0.03%. There are no towns with a percent change in the total female population of more than 5%. The town with the largest percent change in the demonstration female population counts is McCook with a percent change of 2.5%. The median percent change is 0% and the interquartile range is [-0.07%, 0.05%].
Conclusions: When aggregated, the variation introduced by the DAS settings for the total female population at the municipal level is negligible. There are no concerns for directionality. This means we can be reasonably confident in the 2020 jurisdiction-level total female population estimate, as calculated by the subtraction method.
The mean absolute change in the male population under 5 years of age by municipality between the published 2010 data and the demonstration product data is 4.17 people. The largest absolute change in population is for Elgin, with an increase of 23 people in the demonstration data. The mean percent change in the male population under 5 years for all Cook County munis is 0.15%. There are 6 towns with a percent change in the male population under 5 years of more than 5%. The town with the largest absolute percent change in the demonstration population counts is Forest View with a percent change of 33.33%. The median percent change is 0% and the interquartile range is [-0.77%, 0.79%].
Conclusions: When aggregated, the variation introduced by the DAS settings for the male population under 5 years of age at the municipal level largely balances out. There are no concerns for directionality. This means we can be reasonably confident in the 2020 jurisdiction-level male population under 5 years estimate, as calculated by the subtraction method. However, at the individual municipality level, 4% of municipalities have percent changes in population outside acceptable bounds. As expected, outliers are more common in areas where either the total population is smaller or the young male population is low. While this is notable and something to be wary about, it is not an overarching issue for a majority of municipalities.
| Municipality | Published Total | Published | Demonstration | Percent Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| McCook | 228 | 7 | 6 | -14.29 |
| Olympia Fields | 4988 | 80 | 72 | -10.00 |
| Rosemont | 4202 | 178 | 189 | 6.18 |
| Bedford Park | 580 | 16 | 17 | 6.25 |
| Riverwoods | 3660 | 78 | 87 | 11.54 |
| Forest View | 698 | 15 | 20 | 33.33 |
The mean absolute change in the male population 50-54 years of age by municipality between the published 2010 data and the demonstration product data is 4 people. The largest absolute change in population is for Elgin, with a decrease of 16 people in the demonstration data. The mean percent change in the male population 50-54 years for all Cook County munis is -0.02%. There are 4 towns with a percent change in the male population 50-54 years of more than 5%. The town with the largest absolute percent change in the demonstration population counts is Forest View with a percent change of -10%. The median percent change is 0% and the interquartile range is [-0.64%, 0.68%].
Conclusions: When aggregated, the variation introduced by the DAS settings for the male population 50-54 years of age at the municipal level largely balances out. There are no concerns for directionality. This means we can be reasonably confident in the 2020 jurisdiction-level male population 50-54 years estimate, as calculated by the subtraction method. However, at the individual municipality level, 3% of municipalities have percent changes in population outside acceptable bounds. As expected, outliers are more common in areas where either the total population is smaller or the middle-aged male population is low. While this is notable and something to be wary about, it is not an overarching issue for a majority of municipalities.
| Municipality | Published Total | Published | Demonstration | Percent Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forest View | 698 | 30 | 27 | -10.00 |
| McCook | 228 | 17 | 16 | -5.88 |
| South Chicago Heights | 4139 | 136 | 129 | -5.15 |
| Bedford Park | 580 | 24 | 26 | 8.33 |
The mean absolute change in the male population 85 years and older by municipality between the published 2010 data and the demonstration product data is 4 people. The largest absolute change in population is for Hanover Park, with an increase of 20 people in the demonstration data. The mean percent change in the male population 85 years and older for all Cook County munis is 4.26%. There are 55 towns with a percent change in the male population 85 years and older of more than 5%. The town with the largest absolute percent change in the demonstration population counts is East Hazel Crest with a percent change of 233.33%. The median percent change is 0.21% and the interquartile range is [-2.95%, 4.27%].
Conclusions: When aggregated, the variation introduced by the DAS settings for the male population 85 years and older at the municipal level is quite unstable. There are no concerns for directionality. However, this means we cannot be very confident in the 2020 jurisdiction-level male population 85 years and older estimate, as calculated by the subtraction method. At the individual municipality level, 40% of municipalities have percent changes in population outside acceptable bounds. As expected, outliers are more common in areas where either the total population is smaller or the older male population is low, which is not uncommon. Calculation of rates for the 85+ male population at the municipal level should be advised against for some municipalities. When rates must be calculated, strong data caveats should be included. Alternatively, a minimum population threshold of 500 or 1000 could be applied, below which rates would be censored.
| Municipality | Published Total | Published | Demonstration | Percent Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bedford Park | 580 | 5 | 3 | -40.00 |
| Golf | 500 | 8 | 5 | -37.50 |
| Rosemont | 4202 | 20 | 13 | -35.00 |
| Willow Springs | 5524 | 24 | 16 | -33.33 |
| Merrionette Park | 1900 | 14 | 11 | -21.43 |
| Deer Park | 3200 | 10 | 8 | -20.00 |
| Riverside | 8875 | 53 | 43 | -18.87 |
| Phoenix | 1964 | 17 | 14 | -17.65 |
| Northfield | 5420 | 58 | 50 | -13.79 |
| Berkeley | 5209 | 40 | 35 | -12.50 |
The mean absolute change in the female population under 5 years of age by municipality between the published 2010 data and the demonstration product data is 4.51 people. The largest absolute change in population is for Evanston, with a decrease of 21 people in the demonstration data. The mean percent change in the female population under 5 years for all Cook County munis is -0.03%. There are 10 towns with a percent change in the female population under 5 years of more than 5%. The town with the largest absolute percent change in the demonstration population counts is Forest View with a percent change of 19.05%. The median percent change is -0.07% and the interquartile range is [-0.96%, 0.65%].
Conclusions: When aggregated, the variation introduced by the DAS settings for the female population under 5 years of age at the municipal level largely balances out. There are no concerns for directionality. This means we can be reasonably confident in the 2020 jurisdiction-level female population under 5 years estimate, as calculated by the subtraction method. However, at the individual municipality level, 7% of municipalities have percent changes in population outside acceptable bounds. As expected, outliers are more common in areas where either the total population is smaller or the young female population is low. While this is notable and something to be wary about, it is not an overarching issue for a majority of municipalities.
| Municipality | Published Total | Published | Demonstration | Percent Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riverwoods | 3660 | 82 | 73 | -10.98 |
| Countryside | 5895 | 117 | 106 | -9.40 |
| Bedford Park | 580 | 17 | 16 | -5.88 |
| Thornton | 2338 | 72 | 68 | -5.56 |
| North Riverside | 6672 | 165 | 156 | -5.45 |
| Inverness | 7399 | 113 | 119 | 5.31 |
| Olympia Fields | 4988 | 91 | 97 | 6.59 |
| McCook | 228 | 7 | 8 | 14.29 |
| Barrington Hills | 4209 | 62 | 71 | 14.52 |
| Forest View | 698 | 21 | 25 | 19.05 |
The mean absolute change in the female population 50-54 years of age by municipality between the published 2010 data and the demonstration product data is 3.81 people. The largest absolute change in population is for Evanston, with an increase of 18 people in the demonstration data. The mean percent change in the female population 50-54 years for all Cook County munis is 0.55%. There are 5 towns with a percent change in the female population 50-54 years of more than 5%. The town with the largest absolute percent change in the demonstration population counts is McCook with a percent change of 66.67%. The median percent change is 0% and the interquartile range is [-0.45%, 0.51%].
Conclusions: When aggregated, the variation introduced by the DAS settings for the female population 50-54 years of age at the municipal level largely balances out. There are no concerns for directionality. This means we can be reasonably confident in the 2020 jurisdiction-level female population 50-54 years estimate, as calculated by the subtraction method. However, at the individual municipality level, 4% of municipalities have percent changes in population outside acceptable bounds. As expected, outliers are more common in areas where either the total population is smaller or the middle-aged female population is low. While this is notable and something to be wary about, it is not an overarching issue for a majority of municipalities.
| Municipality | Published Total | Published | Demonstration | Percent Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forest View | 698 | 31 | 24 | -22.58 |
| Dixmoor | 3644 | 119 | 112 | -5.88 |
| Hodgkins | 1897 | 50 | 55 | 10.00 |
| Bedford Park | 580 | 24 | 28 | 16.67 |
| McCook | 228 | 3 | 5 | 66.67 |
The mean absolute change in the female population 85 years and older by municipality between the published 2010 data and the demonstration product data is 5 people. The largest absolute change in population is for both Mount Prospect and Tinley Park, both with a decrease of 17 people in the demonstration data. The mean percent change in the female population 85 years and older for all Cook County munis is 2.06%. There are 34 towns with a percent change in the female population 85 years and older of more than 5%. The town with the largest absolute percent change in the demonstration population counts is Golf with a percent change of 50%. The median percent change is 0.34% and the interquartile range is [-1.56%, 4.27%].
Conclusions: When aggregated, the variation introduced by the DAS settings for the female population 85 years and older at the municipal level is quite unstable. There are no concerns for directionality. At the individual municipality level, 25% of municipalities have percent changes in population outside acceptable bounds. This is better for the male population at the same age, and so we can cautiously use the 2020 jurisdiction-level female population 85 years and older estimate, as calculated by the subtraction method. As expected, outliers are more common in areas where either the total population is smaller or the older female population is low, which is not uncommon. Calculation of rates for the 85+ female population at the municipal level should be advised against for some municipalities. When rates must be calculated, strong data caveats should be included. Alternatively, a minimum population threshold of 500 or 1000 could be applied, below which rates would be censored.
| Municipality | Published Total | Published | Demonstration | Percent Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thornton | 2338 | 30 | 23 | -23.33 |
| Bedford Park | 580 | 5 | 4 | -20.00 |
| Hodgkins | 1897 | 21 | 17 | -19.05 |
| Richton Park | 13646 | 85 | 71 | -16.47 |
| Riverdale | 13549 | 76 | 72 | -5.26 |
| Country Club Hills | 16541 | 174 | 165 | -5.17 |
| Flossmoor | 9464 | 96 | 101 | 5.21 |
| Hanover Park | 37973 | 95 | 100 | 5.26 |
| Worth | 10789 | 103 | 109 | 5.83 |
| Chicago Ridge | 14305 | 205 | 217 | 5.85 |